The resurgence of armed groups has led to the death of a large number of civilians and to massive displacement. Since the end of 2016, violence has flared almost everywhere in the provinces. The UN Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in the Central African Republic (MINUSCA), comprising over 12,000 peacekeepers, has failed to compensate for the departure of the French Sangaris force in October 2016 and to exercise a real military deterrence on the armed groups. The relative respite was thus only short-lived. Unfortunately, President Touadéra’s electoral legitimacy did not translate into an effective leverage over the rebels. These political developments were followed by a few months of improved security, as armed groups adopted a wait-and-see attitude, gauging the intentions of the new authorities in Bangui. The presidential and legislative elections held at the end of 2015 and the beginning of 2016 were welcomed by Central Africans and generated high expectations. In order to reverse this trend, the government and its partners must put pressure on the rebels – particularly by tackling their sources of income and exercising stronger military deterrence – but also rebuild trust among the populations of peripheral regions. The incapacity of the peacekeepers to change the balance of power on the ground, the failure of the government to respond to the strong community tensions dividing the country and the competition between international mediation initiatives have further contributed to the current stalemate. So far, the government and the UN have focused their efforts on the process of disarmament, demobilisation, reinsertion and repatriation (DDRR) of the rebels, but little progress actually has been made.
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How Climate Change Fuels Deadly Conflict.How Yemen’s War Economy Undermines Peace Efforts.Crime in Pieces: The Effects of Mexico’s “War on Drugs”, Explained.Rough Seas: Tracking Maritime Tensions with Iran.The Covid-19 Pandemic and Deadly Conflict.Appendix A: Map of Central African Republic.Building Sensible Cooperation with Neighbours: The Case of Pastoralism.Rebuilding a Better Relationship between Outlying Areas and Bangui.
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